The European Union is bracing for a challenging four years following Donald Trump’s return to the White House, according to former EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom. Trump’s promises of imposing tariffs ranging from 10-20% on goods from Europe and ending the Ukraine war could significantly impact the EU, Malmstrom warned.

Malmstrom, who served as the EU’s trade commissioner during Trump’s first term, cited the likely return of tariffs similar to those imposed on steel and aluminium in 2018, which led to retaliatory measures from Brussels. She emphasized that small open economies, such as Ireland, would be particularly vulnerable due to their large exports to the US.

The political landscape in the US, with Republicans controlling the Senate and possibly the House of Representatives, suggests a tumultuous period ahead, Malmstrom noted. She expressed concern over Trump’s hostile stance towards Europe and the absence of moderating voices within his circle. The greater fear, however, is Trump potentially withdrawing US support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, which Malmstrom described as an “existential threat to Europe.”

European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, have congratulated Trump on his victory and expressed willingness to collaborate. Macron and Scholz, in particular, discussed the need for a stronger and more united Europe in light of the new global context.